WILL THE ANALYSIS OF THE POLITICAL OPINION POLLS IMPACT AND SHAPE OUR POLITICAL PLATFORM?WILL IT PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR POLITICAL MANOEUVRES? BY;MUNGAI.

As a matter of perspective ,will the analysis of the political opinion polls impact and shape our political platform?Will it evolve to be a major force to reckon,create a page and space for itself in our midst to the point that it will be a dominant force,a factor to determine our major undertakings?Or,will it deteriorate to obvilion  having lost it’s credibility due to skepticism created by poll results?

According to Wikipedia,an opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample.Opinion pollsare usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolaring generalities in ratio ,or,within confidence intervals.

Opinion polls are carried out by corporate world,political parties,research companies,political observers and companies which wants to launch ,introduce a product in the market.The polls are apart of research strategy devised to seek people’s views,opinion,or,to analyse the real situation on the ground.

In Kenya,opinion polls are still in their infacy,the primary stage as they were not introduced along time ago.And,prior to the 2007 general election,was the first time we were introduced to the world of opinion polls.That  was the time the names of poll company Steadman-now synovate came to the fore and play.Steadman made it’s name by conducting political opinion polls.

By then the polls were carried out to keep abreast to the paces of the top presidential contenders and analyse the real situation on the ground concerning the election.From that moment onwards we have being bombarded and treated to varying opinion polls by different poll companies on any major issue that crops up.

According to political observers ,opinion polls played an important role in the run up to Kenya’s election of 2007,althoughit created abit of fallacy,it’s credibility was questioned.Opinion polls are a new instrument on the kenyan political scene.That 2007 election had seen some poll results published which were met however with widespread skepticism.

But,the opinion polls that were conducted then were criticised due to their invariability and was subject  of manipulation.The subsequent publication of polls of 2007 generated large interest and controversy all at the same time as they were alternatively welcomed and condemned by parties and observers on the national scene and  frequently criticised as having been manipulated.

According to some arguements this fallacy polls were pinpointed as one of the contributing factors that facilitated the eruption post election chaos.The top contenders and their supporters couldn’t comprehend ,understand how their highly rated candidate in the polls could lose.That the results went contrary to the opinion polls of which they had believed as the whole truth.It was a shocker to the contender who argued that the elections were manipulated.

According to wikileaks’ classified information from the American Embassy,it condemned theway polls were been conducted and the disparities it caused.They argued that they were not catering for the necessary demographics when analysing the polls.

In some quarters it was argued  that some presidential hopefuls were bankrolling these poll companies to twist and manipulate the results in their favour and to play to their advantage.And,this results polarised the country as they didn’t quite clearly represent the true picture on the ground.As the presidential results were announced ,hell broke loose as some supporters of certain candidates had believed all the way that their candidate is the eventual winner.

From that moment most people are wary and skeptical of opinion polls receiving them with varied mixed reactions ,some condemning it while others backing them.And,that’s why of late this polls have being the subject of criticism,casualty of disparities ,due to their failure and inadequency  to fully address it’s poll analysis results properly thus creating an aura of suspicion that polls are manipulated to favour certain candidates.

They doesn’t enjoy and attract the much needed enthusiasm form the people due to what transpired in 2007.It can raise the political temperatures thus polarising the country.


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